Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Que hay con la crisis

Creo y sin temor a equivocarme, que muchos estarán diciendo --- no creo que me afecte que Estados Unidos tenga crísis financiera --- tal vez directamente no, pero como no nos va afectar que el país con el cual México tiene fuertes relaciones comerciales, en este momento su solidez económica esta deteriorada profundamente. Estados Unidos es nuestro mayor socio comercial, solo en el 2006 las exportaciones a ese pais representaron el 85% del total, unos 212 mil millones de dólares. México es el tercer socio comercial de Estados Unidos, despues de Canada y China.
En estos últimos días, nuestro primer socio comercial vive ---o mejor dicho--- sufre una de sus peores crisis economicas, que ya es crisis mundial, Wall Street tuvo en días pasados uno de sus peores derrumbes en la historia, luego de que anunciaron que saldrían dos empresas muy conocidas, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. y Merrill Lynch & Co. El indicador industrial Dow Jones cayó y colapso aún más en puntos, desde que los atentados del 11 de septiembre del 2001 en New York interrumpieron durante dias las operaciones de la Bolsa Estadounidense.
La caida de estos dos grupos de Estados Unidos representan el mayor golpe derivado de la crisis que desde hace 14 meses se empezó a sentir y que se deriva en gran parte ---según los expertos en la materia--- a las deudas contraidas con hipotecas con alto riesgo, por personas sin ingresos fijos, sin empleo fijo y sin propiedades (donde he escuchado eso...), personas que se vieron con deudas que no pudieron pagar debido al desplome del precio de las viviendas norteamericanas.
Esto me hace recordar un poco a la crisis económica que se sucitó en México en 1994 y que tuvo severas repercusiones en todos aquellas personas que habían contraido créditos hipotecarios y que finalmente muchos de ellos no pudieron pagar. En el ámbito internacional, a esta crísis se le denominó 'Efecto Tequila', (habrá sido por los dolores de cabeza que causo).
Regresando al asunto de la crisis norteamericana, debido a la bancarrota de Lehman Brothers en los Estados Unidos, las principales bolsas latinoamericanas (Brasil, Argentina, México y Chile) también se vieron seriamente afectadas, 'Hay un pánico muy importante que básicamente tiene que ver con un efecto psicológico que se presenta con cualquier choque financiero externo', dijo a la AP Alfredo Coutiño, analista para Latinoamérica de la consultoría Moody's Economy, con sede en Estados Unidos.
Sin lugar a dudas, México pudiera ser carne de cañón debido a su fuerte relación comercial con nuestro vecino. Esta situación, entre otras, dara a lugar a un sinnúmero de especulaciones por parte de grandes corporaciones, en este sentido, éticamente pudiera no ser correcto, pero estarán en su legitimo derecho de cuidar su patrimonio, pues vivimos en una economía de libre mercado sin restricciones, en donde las fuerzas del mercado son las que fijan el tipo de cambio, por eso veremos salidas de capital y por ende, variaciones en el tipo de cambio, en estos momentos el peso mexicano se ha depreciado respecto al dólar estadounidense, el Banco de México este 16 de octubre asignó mediante mecanismo de subasta interactiva 1,500 millones de dólares a un precio promedio ponderado de 12.9565 para evitar que las fuerzas del mercado empujaran más a la baja el valor de nuestra incipiente moneda, (el instituto mencionado, ha inyectado 10, 800 millones de dólares al mercado cambiario desde el 8 de agosto pasado).
Salvo situaciones negativas para nuestros bolsillos, debido a escalada de precios a bienes de consumo, que ya es inevitable ---según analistas--- parece ser que la economía mexicana se va sostener dentro de niveles tolerables (quien sabe en los sectores más necesitados), es reconocible que aún y con el pellizco de aproximadamente un 13% a las reservas de divisas que ascienden a más de 75 mil 121 millones de dólares, no estamos, ni estaremos en algo parecido al 94,.......eso esperamos.


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